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China's Changing Oil Strategy and its Foreign Policy Implications

Amidst the many uncertainties looming over China's future political and economic circumstances, one thing is evident: whatever the pace of economic development may be, China must address its rapidly growing demand for natural energy and resources. Oil will be at the top of this list. Though China's energy mix will continue to be based on coal, with oil accounting for only about 20-25% of its overall primary energy consumption, the supply of this strategic fuel will remain of critical importance to China's security. Beyond the obvious reasons for its importance, two factors should be mentioned. First, oil will be the only possible primary fuel for some time to come that will be able to satisfy the soaring demand of Chinese transportation and industry—the most rapidly growing sector of energy demand for all developing economies. Second, due to financial, ecological and technological limitations, more advanced processes of energy production (such as hydro and nuclear p

Does Congress Shape the Conduct of American Diplomacy?

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Yesterday marked the 94th anniversary of one of the most significant turning points in American foreign policy history: the  Senate’s vote to reject the Treaty of Versailles . By coincidence, yesterday also saw  World Politics Review publish a piece I wrote entitled “ Backseat Driving: The Role of Congress in American Diplomacy .” Here is an excerpt to give you a flavor of the argument: Diplomacy in the American political system is frequently described as the exclusive province of presidents. Thomas Jefferson, America’s first secretary of state,  wrote in 1790 , “The transaction of business with foreign nations is executive altogether. . . . Exceptions are to be strictly construed.” A decade later, John Marshall, who would go on to become the most influential chief justice in U.S. history,  declared on the floor of the House of Representatives , “The president is the sole organ of the nation in its external relations, and its sole representative with foreign nations.” Justice Geor

The “Oil Abundance” Narrative is Wrong

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A mixture of oil, diesel fuel, water and mud sprays as roughnecks wrestle pipe on a True Company oil drilling rig outside Watford, North Dakota, October 20, 2012. Picture taken October 20, 2012. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart America has moved from oil scarcity to oil abundance, and our attitudes need to change in order to keep up. If the  stream  of headlines  and panels is any indication, you’d have to be an idiot to disagree with that claim. So call me stupid, because I just don’t see it. There’s no question that U.S. oil production is booming. The country  has passed  Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest liquid fuels producer and is  now producing  more oil than it imports. The rise in U.S. output, which is poised to continue, is  good news  for the economy and national security. It’s also something that leaders need to adjust to as they develop policy and strategy. But setting production records and passing milestones is fundamentally different from abundance. By pretty much every m

Losing Syria’s Economic Future

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Left with a tattered economy after nearly three years of war, an effective economic recovery plan should be a cornerstone of Syria’s reconciliation. The Syrian conflict is destroying the economy and creating a long term economic crisis for Syria that will make a lasting peace in the future even more difficult. With the ongoing fighting, the economy’s downward trend persists and experts expect Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to decrease by a further 13.9 percent by year-end (it is already  down 14.4 percent in 2012 ). Furthermore, de-industrialization, debt, and geographic division worsen the outlook of Syria’s economy beyond the current conflict. Addressing the country’s economic crisis and presenting viable measures for an economic recovery should go hand in hand with the political reconciliation process. The country’s main economic drivers were hit particularly hard. Among those, Syria’s oil sector is at a standstill. The energy infrastructure has been severely damaged, wells s