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Showing posts with the label Eastern Europe

Georgia on Russia’s Mind?

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Last Sunday, Georgia has completed its  first constitutional transition of power  since gaining independence 22 years ago. The Georgian people have a big reason to celebrate, even if some are still reeling from last year's electoral defeat and others may eventually become disappointed in the hopes of a quick material improvement in their lives. Later this month, Georgian leaders will also participate in the European Union's Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius , where Tbilisi is likely to sign an association agreement with the EU. This would agree with the Georgian elites' long-time yearning to be joined with Europe. At Sunday's inauguration ceremony, one foreign delegation was conspicuously absent. Diplomatic relations with Russia, broken off by Tbilisi at the time of the  2008 war in South Ossetia , have not been restored. Moscow, for its part, has recognized independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia and set up military bases in both. Despite the recent relaxat...

Smart Geostrategy for the Eastern Partnership

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The Vilnius summit is a chance for the EU to define a more effective Eastern strategy. Yet many European governments seem unsure about what being “strategic” actually means.

Raising the Stakes of a Russian Strangulation of Ukraine’s Economy

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A number of recent comments, by more or less high-ranking Russian officials, on Ukraine’s immanent inclusion into the European unification process has led to a Russian-Ukrainian war of words, with some Moscow commentators reacting ever more hysterically. The Russian President Putin’s official advisor on economic integration, Sergei Glazyev, said recently that Kyiv’s signature under the Association Agreement with the European Union will be “economic suicide,” a “surrender of sovereignty,” and a “violation of the Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty on which the entire foundation of our relations is built.” Russia is seemingly preparing a whole battery of “reactive” measures concerning both its exports to Ukraine, above all in the energy sphere, and its imports from Ukraine, in a number of sensitive trade areas. Large sections of the Ukrainian economy are de facto dependent on Russia. This concerns both the availability of Russian markets to Ukrainian producers, and the delivery of R...

The Kremlin uses bully-boy tactics to keep other countries in the fol

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Putin and his ministers were uncharacteristically polite about Barack Obama, welcoming co-operation with him over Syria’s chemical weapons. Yet only a few weeks previously their relations with Washington had been toxic, with rows over Syria, Edward Snowden and missile defence.Ever since Vladimir Putin returned to the presidency, in May 2012, Russia’s relations with the west have been fraught. He has become increasingly authoritarian, thwarted US diplomacy on Syria and claimed that he is defending the Judaeo-Christian values abandoned by western countries. But now Putin seems to be softening his approach. This may be because of Russia’s mounting economic problems, the opposition’s surprisingly strong showing in local elections, and the convergence with Washington over Syria’s chemical weapons. A new-look Putin was on display at this year’s “Valdai Club”, a group of international think-tankers, academics and journalists that meets once a year in Russia. As we gathered by the shores ...

German-Russian Business Cooperation: What Consequences for Eastern Europe?

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Germany’s trade, financial, and investment policies towards Russia, notably on the issue of natural gas, have contributed to re-shaping the post-Soviet Eastern European geo-economic landscape. As a result, Ukraine could become a hostage of Berlin’s recent  Ostpolitik  in the possible case that the tensions between Moscow and Kyiv further increase. How should Berlin behave towards Moscow in light of the increasingly authoritarian trends in Putin’s third presidential term? Germany’s policy towards Russia has been tested, over the last months, regarding its ethical and political implications. In contrast, the geostrategic intricacies of Germany’s close economic cooperation with this post-imperial autocracy have received less attention. What consequences for Eastern Europe, as an economic and political space, does Germany’s close cooperation with Russia have? Which security policy risks are involved in the participation of German companies and public figures in the geo-economy...