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Showing posts with the label MENA

Losing Syria’s Economic Future

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Left with a tattered economy after nearly three years of war, an effective economic recovery plan should be a cornerstone of Syria’s reconciliation. The Syrian conflict is destroying the economy and creating a long term economic crisis for Syria that will make a lasting peace in the future even more difficult. With the ongoing fighting, the economy’s downward trend persists and experts expect Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to decrease by a further 13.9 percent by year-end (it is already  down 14.4 percent in 2012 ). Furthermore, de-industrialization, debt, and geographic division worsen the outlook of Syria’s economy beyond the current conflict. Addressing the country’s economic crisis and presenting viable measures for an economic recovery should go hand in hand with the political reconciliation process. The country’s main economic drivers were hit particularly hard. Among those, Syria’s oil sector is at a standstill. The energy infrastructure has been severely damaged, wel...

Iran’s Terrorism Problem

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Iran is a major sponsor of terrorism, striking Israel, U.S. Arab allies, and at times Americans. The twin blasts on Tuesday that destroyed the Iranian embassy in Lebanon and killed at least twenty people, however, should remind us that Iran faces a serious terrorism problem of its own. It is tempting to enjoy Iran getting a taste of its own medicine, but the growing violence risks further destabilizing the Middle East and harming U.S. interests there. A History of Violence Since the 1979 Islamic revolution,  Iran has backed an array of terrorist groups . These groups have fostered unrest in Iraq and the oil-rich Gulf Kingdoms, killed Iran’s enemies in Europe, and struck at enemies like Israel and the United States. Most infamously for Americans, Iran has backed the Lebanese Hizballah, providing it with hundreds of millions of dollars, sophisticated arms, and advanced training. Among its many operations, Hizballah in 1983 bombed the U.S. embassy and the Marine barracks hos...

The Geopolitics of a US-Iran Détente

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Sanctions, centrifuges and personalities aren’t the only forces pushing Iran and the U.S. toward a détente.

The Silliness of "China in Africa"

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Since China forayed into African markets in the mid-2000s there has been ongoing speculation surrounding what China is doing in Africa, how it is doing it, and why. In media and policy circles the rhetoric relentlessly stresses ‘China  in  Africa,’ failing to realize that such lopsided and macro analyses obfuscate more than they illuminate. China’s political and economic engagement in Africa is deep. Between 2009 and 2012, China’s direct investment in Africa grew at an annual rate of 20.5 percent. While negligible in 2000, trade between the regions hit $195.8 billion in 2012 and is estimated to reach $385 billion by 2015. China’s engagement is also far-reaching. Public and private firms construct roads, hospitals, schools, stadiums and training centers for the exchange of technology and knowledge. State-owned energy companies explore for oil; manufacturing firms operate factories in remote African cities; and Chinese entrepreneurs sell knick-knacks in roadside shops. Th...

A March to War? The New Iran Sanctions Straw Man

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Does Congress have the ability to scuttle a potential nuclear deal with Iran? White House Spokesman Jay Carney thinks so. During Tuesday’s press briefing, he declared  that, if Congress acts in such a way that a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear issue is “disallowed or ruled out”, it could create “a march to war.” Many Iran hawks have   taken issue  with Carney’s remarks, with John Bolton   saying that "Neville Chamberlain would be proud.” However, a common feature of these critiques is that they mischaracterize Carney’s argument, by asserting that Carney believes that the imposition of  any  new sanctions on Iran would derail negotiations and prompt a march to war. Elliot Abrams, for example,   wrote  that Carney “called any effort to adopt additional sanctions against Iran ‘a march to war.’” Carney did no such thing. Carney was not necessarily arguing against the imposition of any new sanctions; rather, he was taking issue with...

Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu: Nobody Can Limit Turkey's Vision

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"The balances of power according to a bipolar system has ended,"  said Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs H. E. Ahmet Davutoğlu  at a Brookings event on Monday, "but still we are looking for new axes and new balances" which need to be "adjusted, especially in the UN system." In this statesman's forum address, hosted by the  Center on the United States and Europe , Foreign Minister Davutoğlu focused on how Turkey's foreign policy is evolving to meet challenges in the region and globally. He began with the UN and the humanitarian crisis in Syria: The international system, unfortunately, in charge of—the UN especially—in charge of keeping peace and stability in international order, is not providing quick answers to the questions and crisis which are the threats to the international system. He detailed the crisis: 130,000 people killed, 7 million displaced, 2 million refugees (700,000 of them in Turkey), chemical weapons used, and millions...

Syria’s Sectarian Ripples Across the Gulf

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SUMMARY Like the Iraq war and, to a lesser extent, Lebanon’s 2006 war, Syria’s internecine conflict has enabled the Gulf’s ruling families, media commentators, clerics, parliamentarians, and activists to invoke and amplify Sunni-Shia identities, often for goals that are rooted in local power politics.   By-products of the mounting sectarian tension include the fraying of reform cooperation among sects and regions, and pressure on the Gulf’s formal political institutions.   Traditional and social media have served to amplify the most polarizing voices as well as provide reform activists new means for cross-sectarian communication that circumvent governmental efforts to control or block such activities. BACKGROUND The Gulf Arab states have been major players in Syria’s war and, in turn, the war’s effects have rippled across the domestic landscapes of the Gulf in ways that are often unseen but nonetheless significant. Chief among these has been a rise in...

Scowcroft, Brzezinski urge Iran accord

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WASHINGTON - Two pillars of the US foreign policy establishment urged Congress on Monday to forgo any new sanctions legislation directed against Iran, warning that it will risk "undermining or even shutting down" ongoing negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program.  In a letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, General Brent Scowcroft (retired), who served as national security adviser to Presidents Gerald Ford and George H W Bush, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, who served in the same post under President Jimmy Carter, said that an interim agreement with Iran - the focus of critical talks the next round of which is to begin Wednesday in Geneva - "would advance the national security of the United States, Israel, and other partners in the region".  "More sanctions now as these unprecedented negotiations are just getting underway would reconfirm Iranians in their belief that the US is not prepared to make any agreement with the current government of Ira...